Archive for the ‘Climate and Weather’ Category

A Warm, But Flat, Earth

Saturday, May 1st, 2010

“The mythical Computer Model of global warming…is based on a flat Earth.”

Vincent Gray at Climate Realists wrote:

The attached graph is in all of the Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate change, and it is fundamental to all their activities. It assumes that the earth can be considered to be flat, that the sun shines all day and all night with equal intensity, and that the temperature of the earth’s surface is constant.

Surber comments, “If true, I find that to be amusing. Skeptics are supposed to be the flat Earthers, not our moral and intellectual superiors.”

Granularity

Monday, March 15th, 2010

The American Thinker has a great graphic showing the distribution of the weather stations used to record climate data:
ISH-station-map-1986-thru-2009-6-hrly-w
[Click for full-size, full resolution.]

Hm, almost nothing in the southern hemisphere. Almost nothing over the oceans. Guess those areas really don’t matter.

A commenter for this article suggests using GPS data which records atmospheric drag on the GPS satellite flock. That drag increases and decreases according to the size of the atmosphere, which in turn varies according to temperature. It really is a global average.

Error Cascades, Green Shirts, and Zombies

Wednesday, February 3rd, 2010

I’m more than a little rushed this morning, but I have to point to Eric S. Raymond’s excellent analysis of the collapse of the Anthropomorphic Global Warming movement, calling for “The Naming and Shaming the AGW Fraudsters”:

The best reason not to relent, to name and shame the fraudsters and shatter their reputations and humilate them — ideally, to the point where there’s a rash of prominent suicides as a result — is this:

If we don’t destroy them, they’ll surely ramp up yet another colossal, politicized eco-fraud.

The segment Raymond has identified as zombies and greenshirts I’ve heard elsewhere named as watermelons: green on the outside, red on the inside.

Oh, and don’t miss his conclusion:

The key point — and the reason the AGW frauds need to be shamed and punished — is that the political background conditions favoring this kind of fraud are still in place.

That is, the zombies and green-shirts still have a powerful interest in magnifying scientific errors that suit their agendas into politicized crusades that could produce error cascades just as huge. Somewhere out there, there are now-innocent scientific research groups who could become the next decade’s version of the “team”, degenerating into fraudulent conspiracies as careerism draws them in, the political villains cheer them on to rationalize the power-grab of the week, and the Gaianists gamely but stupidly try to do the right thing.

I’m even prepared to hazard a guess where the next fraud would be ginned up from: environmental toxicology and what are called “endocrine disruptors”.

[Emphasis ESR's]
Absolutely, read the whole thing. This is one of those lens articles that brings an entire scene into focus.

update:
From the Devil’s Kitchen, an excellent explanation of the decision tree we should be using :
AGW-DecisionTree

and the very simplified tree actually in use:
AGW-DecisionTree-InUse

Meet the State’s Witnesses at Your Murder Trial

Monday, December 21st, 2009

Change blindness:

[Via Radley Balko at The Agitator.]

The experimenters note that they don’t know whether this shows differences between the subjects, or just random chance.

Trials aside, this is also relevant to any kind of fact-finding process — including science itself. It’s a big part of the reason that safeguards such as double-blinds and repeatability are so crucial.

I’ve seen demands that police lineups prohibit detectives familiar with the case from participating, from being in the viewing room with the witness.

Suggestion for crime lab directors: don’t hand a sample to your squint and ask “did this come from Mr. I-have-a-lawyer-and-powerful-friends in our holding cell?” (Much less something like, “We really need to find this thug’s blood on this dress, or we’re going to have to let him go.”) Instead, try something like “Here’s six samples in rack A, and six samples in rack B. Do any of the As match any of the Bs?”

Should we talk about attorneys presenting highly refined, well groomed evidence to juries? How about putting jurors through little demonstrations showing just how fallible their perceptions are, how much their prejudices affect their judgement?

Suggestion for these experimenters: Some interviewees should see the same guy both times. The interviewers must not know whether or not a given subject saw a different guy or not. Oh, and “guy”?

Suggestion for climate researchers: don’t do the data analysis yourself. Hand a bunch of datasets, some real, some dummy, some pure random noise to point up biases in your software, to a few statisticians, and ask them to (independently) report any trends they can find in the data. Don’t even tell them the variables or units involved.

I know there are huge problems with the crude approach I just outlined. I understand all too well that a certain amount of fudging and trickery is absolutely necessary during the investigative phase when the researchers may not know what they’re looking for, and are accounting for biases and errors they know their equipment and procedures show — but something like this as a sanity check ought to be required for any research underlying public policy.

[Edit 21 Dec 2009: fix some small problems in word choice and flow.]

Climate Change In Context

Sunday, December 13th, 2009

An excellent graphic from Watts Up With That?
noaa_gisp2_icecore_anim3
Follow the link for more explanation, and for links to other versions of this graphic, including a Youtube version with useful annotations.

Everybody’s favorite weasel-girl did an early version of this using WUWT’s original charts.

Snow Funny

Wednesday, December 9th, 2009

From the Wikipedia article on “blizzard”:

In the United States, the National Weather Service defines a blizzard as sustained 35mph (56 km/h) winds which lead to blowing snow and cause visibilities of 500ft or less, lasting for at least 3 hours. Temperature is not taken into consideration when issuing a blizzard warning, but the nature of these storms is such that cold air is often present when the other criteria are met.

Given that I am currently in Wisconsin, I leave it as an exercise for the reader to determine why I was looking this up.

An Ocean of Data

Saturday, May 16th, 2009

From the Vancouver Sun, “Little Ocean Tattletales Fail to Find Right Facts”:

They drift along in the worlds’ oceans at a depth of 2,000 metres — more than a mile down — constantly monitoring the temperature, salinity, pressure and velocity of the upper oceans.

Then, about once every 10 days, a bladder on the outside of these buoys inflates and raises them slowly to the surface, gathering data about each strata of seawater they pass through.

After an upward journey of nearly six hours, the Argo monitors bob on the waves while an onboard transmitter sends their information to a satellite that in turn retransmits it to several land-based research computers where it may be accessed by anyone who wishes to see it.

These 3,000 yellow sentinels — about the size and shape of a large fencepost — free-float the world’s oceans, season in and season out, surfacing between 30 and 40 times a year, disgorging their findings, then submerging again for another fact-finding voyage.

It’s fascinating to watch their progress online. (The URLs are too complex to reproduce here, but Google “Argo Buoy Movement” or “Argo Float Animation,” and you will be directed to the links.)

[Here's a good one. Below is a still from one of these movies, so you can get an idea of just how well these little guys are surveying the ocean. -- djm]

Still from a NASA animation showing tracks of free-floating oceanographic buoys.

Still from a NASA animation showing tracks of free-floating oceanographic buoys.

When they were first deployed in 2003, the Argos were hailed for their ability to collect information on ocean conditions more precisely, at more places and greater depths and in more conditions than ever before.

No longer would scientists have to rely on measurements mostly at the surface from older scientific buoys or inconsistent shipboard monitors.

So why are some scientists now beginning to question the buoys’ findings? Because in five years the little blighters have failed to detect any global warming. They are not reinforcing the scientific orthodoxy of the day, namely that man is causing the planet to warm dangerously. They are not proving the predetermined conclusions of their human masters. Therefore they, and not their masters’ hypotheses, must be wrong.

In fact, “there has been a very slight cooling,” according to a U.S. National Public Radio (NPR) interview with Josh Willis at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, a scientist who keeps close watch on the Argo findings.

I’d quote the whole thing, but the Sun deserves your traffic, so go read the whole thing.

update:
Cold Fury calls out global warming: “It ain’t science, it’s religion.”
The people pushing the GW agenda don’t give a good goddamn about Mother Earth. They want to return us all to a pre-industrial culture, with us as dirty sweaty agrarian peasants and them as the exalted overlords, wallowing in the rotting corpse of the richest, most powerful society the world has ever seen. The religion is all about making us accept it by making us think we’re saving ourselves.

They will never accept the limits they want to impose on us.

Damn straight, Al Gore and Barack Obama are only the most visible of the They.


NASA’s Scientific Visualization Studio rocks,. and I mean hard. I’m going to be spending more time there than I have, I can tell. Just… damn!

Here’s what I found by just clicking on the “Next” link on the Argo page:
topex_still_nino04dec1997_web

This is a map of “relative sea level around the Earth“. Red indicates highs, blue lows.

Here’s the trick: this map shows a variation of 500 mm above and below average. The total range, highest to lowest, is one meter. That’s right, about a yard on a globe 8000 miles in diameter, measuring a surface covered with waves well over one meter high.

There is nothing, nothing, we cannot know about our world if we choose to find out.

And if this is a firehose, just wait: It’s going to become a Niagra.

[Credit for both images to NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center Scientific Visualization Studio.]

[Link to Sun via Dan at Protein Wisdom.]

Never Too Late to Mock Earth Day

Saturday, April 25th, 2009

Oh, yeah:earthhour_northkorea
Via Dr. Sanity, who’s got some very sane things to say. Goest thou, and readeth ye Whole Thingy.


Yes, I love the old TV show M*A*S*H. Really, I do. Great characters (especially Col. Potter), great dialog, great jokes, great stories. As human a show as has ever been on TV.

But every time they get political, and mock the rationale behind the American presence in Korea (and, by implication, Viet Nam) I think of this picture. The part of Korea that we saved is, down there at the bottom, is even today a civilized industrial nation.

The part of Korea that we abandoned, in those last few episodes where everyone is so thrilled that the war is over and they get to go home, is that black atavistic hellhole up there at the top.

God damn it, Major Frank Burns was essentially right, and the fact that he was portrayed as a bumbling, jingoistic idiot was a betrayal of the people and the way of life his patients were there to fight for.

Snow in Houston, Texas

Wednesday, December 10th, 2008

Cars in a dealership parking lot covered with snow

Cars in a dealership parking lot covered with snow


I was not the only one taking this picture or its like; I saw cars stopped on the highway photographing dealer lots with what looked like pro-gear.

The snow on the highway overpasses were beginning to cover even the traffic paths. I passed one accident, saw one car who looked as if he might have just barely avoided hitting the barrier barrels in the crotch of a wye, and there was a whole lane of stopped cars that may well have been due to an accident. Iwas OK, but for a while, I was being followed by some idiot who hugged my tail by a carlength or less, at freeway speeds, although I kept flashing my brake lights trying to get him to back off. No go. Made it home alright, though.

Ike 5: First Thunder

Friday, September 12th, 2008

Radar shows northernmost bands approaching south-east corner of the 610 loop. Strongest rain is only moderate to heavy, and it’s followed by a band of light to nothing, then the eye, then more moderate to heavy.

My parents have turned off their power and gone to bed, so they’ll get some rest before Ike shakes them awake.

Sooo…I’ve handed the man my ticket. I’m strapped in. We’re climbing that first hill, and we’re almost to the top….

I just wish…I just wish I could see the other end of the track, but there’s all these clouds in the way.